Today, analysts are predicting that disagreements within the Eurasian Economic Union project will reach their peak by the year 2015, when the issue of a currency union is to be decided, KW wrote this week.
Firstly, the economy of Belarus is not any close to Russia and Kazakhstan. And here is really a resemblance with the EU - Belarus’ membership will be perceived as premature and aggravate the imbalance in the community, just like was the case with Greece’s entry into the EU in 2000.
Another problem is the huge grey market, which casts doubt on the prospects of forming a common currency union. The share of the shadow economy in Russia is estimated at 41% of GDP, in Kazakhstan – 38%, in Belarus – 43%.
Also, the differences approaches to forming a common Eurasian Union currency will grow with time. Kazakhstan wants a new monetary unit, while Moscow has no intention of doing away with the ruble. This principal issue may remain a stumbling block.
Thirdly, own currencies allow sovereign nations to maintain the competitiveness of its goods on foreign markets thanks to the option of devaluation. If a single currency is introduced, such maneuvers will no longer be possible, and this will increase the economic risks for all union members.
On November 18, the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in Moscow the Declaration on Eurasian Economic Integration – a road map of the integration process – with the final goal of creating the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) is being set up to coordinate the formation of a new geopolitical society.