Political scientists comment probability of creating democratic coalition and approving of the government with the head of BYUT leader Yulia Tymoshenko.
These are results of the expert poll, carried out by Research Center of Political Values, these results were passed to UNIAN.
The center reminded that on October 15 the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Our Ukraine –People’s Self Defence Bloc signed an agreement on creating coalition in the Verkhovna Rada of the 6th convocation.
That is why the Center turned to political experts with question: “Whether signing the document guarantees creating coalition of the democratic forces and approval of the government headed by Tymoshenko?”.
Director of European Institute of Integration and Development Dmytro Vydrin thinks that following the agreement is guaranteed not by their signing but by the range of other factors. “I used to rely on experience and precedents.
Ukrainian experience indicates only 1 or 2 agreements out of 10-signed agreements are fulfilled. Consequently 80-90% of agreements precipitated. In our country the agreement exists not at the cost of people, who signed agreement, but at the cost of money or personal great desire or at the cost of foreign factors. If these factors work than the probability exists”, said D. Vydrin.
In his turn, leader of Political Values Research Center Oles Doniy is sure that the coalition of the democratic forces will be created. According to his words, the “orange forces” can not afford themselves the creation of the “wide coalition” in this period of political life, because they gave other promises during the election campaigning.
At the same time, O. Doniy noted that the formal creation of the coalition of the democratic forces at the basis of the BYUT and the OU-PSD does not guarantee the effective voting on the candidacy of Yulia Tymoshenko. “There are enough disinterested people in different camps in strengthening of Yu. Tymoshenko. That is why, she has to work hard for attracting additional votes in order to provide her victory”, political scientist thinks.
At the same time, chairman of “Penta” Applied Political Researches Center Volodymyr Fesenko said that signing of the agreement does not give the guarantees for the creating of the coalition.
In his opinion, one more reason for the potential division can be the voting on candidate for the speaker post of the Verkhovna Rada. “It is not much spoken about now, but there are rumours in lobby. Even Kyrylenko candidacy may be problematic”, said V. Fesenko.
At the same time, leader of Extension Possibilities Center Victor Nebozhenko that yesterday’s signing the agreement between the BYUT and the OU-PSD on creating the coalition is only the first document. It was not necessary for the them to touch an issue about the position of the prime minister. Firstly, it was necessary to agree about the future of the Verkhovna Rada. And then, when they would elect all governing bodies of the Verkhovna Rada it would be necessary to come to other agreement – agreement on coalition. Starting with the sweetest one – division of the executive power and finance flows – is a bad tradition, which starts to form in the Ukrainian politics”, the expert is sure.
In his turn, director of Ukrainian Department of International Institute of Humanitarian – Political researches Volodymyr Malynkovych thinks that the “orange forces” will create the coalition and Yu. Tymoshenko will be the head of the Government. “Yes, I think it will be the government headed by Tymoshenko. The situation completely differs from the situation, which was in 2005, when the “orange forces” were the single force. Today, it is two different political forces, which are united in situational way. Moreover, Yu. Tymoshenko now has more influence than Yushchenko. That is why, Yushchenko will not be able to deny to Tymoshenko”, an expert said.
In opinion of director of Global Strategies Institute Volodymyr Karasev, now it is riskily to give 100% guarantees that the BYUT leader will head the Government.
At the same time he thinks that, the OU-PSD and the BYUT rather organically fill two main personnel cells of the future coalition. And there is no third unnecessary there. That is why, the coalition will be likely created and the process of its finishing will be marked by effective voting on the position of speaker and on the post of the prime minister, said V. Karasev.
At the same time, he noted , that “there will be no easy life for the coalition”. “The problem of this coalition is not in its creation but in what to do then with this “coalition happiness”. 3-4 deputy mandates are little in order to feel itself in full parliamentary coalition safety. The Party of Regions will not give any guarantees on non-aggression and chose active, attacking style. It can become the barrier for demonstration of the coalition efficiency. Because all this is connected with functioning process, but not with creation of the coalition”, said V. Karasev.