Political scientists forecast development of Ukrainian-American relations

18:47, 05 November 2008
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After Obama elected as new US President

Political scientists see different ways of development of the Ukrainian-American relations after Barack Obama was elected as the new US President, according to the poll of experts, carried out by Aksia Center for Political Values Studies, and forwarded to UNIAN.

The Center asked Ukrainian political scientists to answer question: “How will Ukrainian-American relations change after the new US President was elected?”

In particular, Mykhaylo Pohrebynskiy, head of the Center for Political Studies and Conflictology, believes that the Ukrainian-American relations may improve after Barack Obama was elected as the new US President. According to him, B.Obama will focus rather on internal problems and on overcoming financial crisis than on the foreign policy. The same concerns the issue of Ukraine’s joining NATO MAP. “The new American President will be ready to listen to arguments of the “Old Europe”, will not insist that much on Ukraine’s and Georgia’s integration with NATO, as Bush did, and as his rival would do. The desire to listen more to opinion of the “Old Europe” will have positive consequences for developing foreign policy in Ukraine… It means that it will become closer to Ukrainian national interests, and not to interests formed by the Republic administration”, M.Poherbynskiy stressed.

In his turn, Ukrainian Barometer sociological service head Victor Nebozhenko believes that the Ukrainian-American relations will deteriorate.

“The very relations may even get complicated, because, in fact, nobody knows Obama. He has just rushed into politics. In this situation, none of Ukrainian politics may brag about presenting him a dove or an embroidery, or any other product of Ukraine’s industrial capacities. Obama has time not to respond to hints and wishes of Ukrainian politicians. In the nearest half-year, the State Department’s policy towards Ukraine will be stronger than Obama’s preferences. He must make up his mind about Ukraine”, the political scientist noted.

According to him, “Obama will try to become more radical, first of all, to Russia. The aggravation of relations between Russia and USA, when Obama would like to show that he’s not weak, will immediately influence the Russian-Ukrainian relations. Due to this indirect factor, the Obama’s victory may create problems for us”, V.Nebozhenko said.

At the same time, Oleksander Medvedev, political programs head of the Aksia Center for Political Values Studies, pointed out it is too early to speak about how Ukrainian-American relations may change after Obama was elected.

Andriy Yermolayev, head of Sofia Center for Social Studies, also believes that we should not expect for radical changes in the USA’s attitude to Ukraine after B.Obama was elected. “Regardless of changes in the American ruling establishment, we should expected that, considering the policy of US national interests, Ukraine is still an instrument in the play with Eurasia but nothing more. Ukraine is a constituent part of restricting Russia. Leading political scientists have always written about that… So we should not expect from USA any changes in their attitude to us”, the expert noted.

In the opinion of A.Yermoplayev, Obama has brought hope for a more independent and self-sufficient development of EU, and for a gradual transition from the Euro-Atlantic format of development to several regional poles.

“This trend could be beneficial for Ukraine because it gives more opportunities with reducing risks of resistance in the Eurasian region”, he said.


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