Ukraine output posts 10-yr record fall

11:04, 12 December 2008
Ukraine
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Worse to come?

Ukraine`s industrial output fell almost 30 percent in November year-on-year - the sharpest drop in a decade, the central bank`s top adviser said on Thursday, predicting worse was to come, Reuters reported.

This is the second month in a row when output data indicated a severe slowdown in Ukraine`s economy as global demand for its key products - steel and

chemicals - drops off. In October, output fell 20 percent year-on-year.

Output fell 15.2 percent month-on-month in November and 0.7 percent in January-November, against a rise of 10.7 percent in the same period last year.

`Such a fall -15.2 percent (month-on-month) and 28.6 percent to November last year -- is unprecedented since falls recorded in 1998,` central bank adviser Valery Lytvytsky told Reuters.

`We may see a correction in December, but we haven`t reached the bottom yet. January and February are always bad. Unfortunately, the fall is gathering pace,` he said.

Official data from the State Statistics Committee was due around this week.

The government is yet to decide on new macro-economic forecast for next year after the sudden appearance of a slowdown. The economy ministry said on Wednesday growth could shrink by 5 percent next year.

October`s drop in output led to a year-on-year fall in economic growth of

2.1 percent -- the first fall since 2005 -- though accumulated January-October growth was still positive at 5.8 percent, against 7.3 percent in the same period

a year ago.

`November`s output will impact on GDP, but not to the degree that other factors could not compensate,` Lytvytsky said.

`I hope that (Jan-Nov growth) will still be positive, though it might be half of 10-month growth of 5.8 percent,` he said.

Reuters via Hemscott

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