If the recently introduced weekend quarantine remains in force in Ukraine, the death toll from COVID-19 will be between 17,000 to 33,000 people by the end of the year.
This is the conclusion announced by analysts from Kyiv School of Economics. The results of the corresponding modeling were given in a presentation, titled: "Analysis of the current situation and modeling of scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 disease."
According to senior researcher Yuriy Ganychenko, they considered three scenarios for the weekend quarantine:
- The green scenario (the most optimistic and unlikely), which foresees 17,000 deaths, subject to the immediate introduction of a lockdown throughout Ukraine;
- The yellow scenario, which predicts 26,000 deaths and is possible provided the weekend quarantine succeeds;
- The black scenario, which projects 33,000 deaths and is possible if the weekend quarantine is unsuccessful.
Analysts say that the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine has been growing steadily: "We continue to rank last among European countries in terms of testing."
Weekend quarantine in Ukraine
- On November 11, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to introduce the so-called weekend quarantine starting from November 14.
- The government repealed the adaptive quarantine system and imposed a nationwide quarantine with curbs for all territories that were in effect in the previous version of the coronavirus quarantine in zones with the orange risk level.
- On November 17, the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, did not back a draft resolution recommending that the Ukrainian government soften the restrictions imposed along with the so-called weekend quarantine.