Despite communications between Kyiv, its Western backers, separatists and Russia, hostility remains, according to Stratfor. The political status of the separatist regions and Moscow's broader regional imperatives continue to prevent true tactical de-escalation on the battlefield. Although both sides now appear to be increasing their ability to conduct armed operations again, Stratfor still does not foresee Russia engaging in a major offensive.
However, the current instability and higher concentration of forces on the demarcation line may rekindle fighting with limited offensive operations in the coming weeks.
In case the offensive operations will resume, they have narrowly defined objectives. Localized escalations similar to the Debaltseve standoff, which lasted beyond the cease-fire, could emerge at various points on the front line.
Separatists could even try to take control of more territory around the city of Mariupol, but even there a massive assault on the city would surpass these objectives and risk raising Western sanctions, something Russia has avoided thus far. Nevertheless, even a confined escalation could easily prompt additional U.S. measures, such as tightening sanctions and expanding security support to Kyiv, according to Stratfor.
Read alsoDonbas sees peak of 152 attacks by Russian proxies in last weeksIt is also important to realize that separatists are not the only force that could initiate offensive operations. The Ukrainian military has been trying to increase its capacity since the cease-fire, and it has received large quantities of equipment from its own defense industry as well as foreign supporters. Kiev, which is perceived to have greater capabilities, may seek to contest separatist resistance on the battlefield rather than at the negotiating table.
